We have all heard the sayings, “everything old is new,” and “there is nothing new under the sun.” We read history to understand the present. Filled with nostalgia, season 3 of Cobra Kai, like the previous seasons before is some of the best entertainment on television. Even though the series is fiction, it has echoes of real life. As an army strategist, what strikes me about the series is the parallels between Jon Horowitz’s Cobra Kai and Thucydides’ History of the Peloponnesian War. Further, the wit and wisdom of Carl von Clausewitz is evident in each episode. Every important lesson of warfare and statecraft recorded by Thucydides, and multiple teaching of Clausewitz appear in a modern from in Cobra Kai.
SPOILER ALERT!!! SPOILER ALERT!!! SPOILER ALERT!!! SPOILER ALERT!!!
Thucydides
Fear, Honor, Interest
According to Thucydides, nations go to war for three reasons: fear, honor, and interest.
With respect to fear, the Spartans declared war because “they feared the growth of the power of the Athenians. Thus, aspect of one nation or hegemon fearing the rise of a rival, thus leading to war is known as a Thucydides trap. When it comes to contemporary geopolitics, the idea of an inevitable conflict or war between the United States and China is often attributed to this theory.
In the Valley, the war between Daniel LaRusso and Johnny Lawrence, or between Miyagi Dojo and Cobra Kai was a product of fear. Johnny Lawrence had an interest in bringing back Cobra Kai due to his own life and financial situations. When Daniel saw the advertisements for Cobra Kai, he feared their rise and began his own dojo, reigniting the thirty-year conflict. John Kreese returned out of his own misguided sense of honor, and a need to redeem himself following his humiliating defeats at the hands of Daniel LaRusso and Mr. Miyagi.
Honor was important to the Spartans, as the Spartan King asked his people for declare war on Athens “for the honor which Sparta demands.” This judgement came from the belief that Athens violated the thirty-year peace treaty. In a similar manner, both Johnny Lawrence and Daniel LaRusso felt that the 30-year peace between them was violated by their adversary. Honor always demands the last word, or in this case, the last victory in battle. This continued search for a final victory leads to escalation, and to a never-ending conflict.
When we look back at the global war on terror (GWOT), and more specifically on our collective decisions to invade Afghanistan and Iraq, the full spectrum of fear, honor, and interest come to the forefront. Immediately after 9/11, there was an initial feeling of fear along with the sense that we as Americans our honor demanded strikes against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Finally, to justify our action came the interests, or at least the selling of interests such as the need to eliminate weapons of mass destruction that never existed. There is an emotional component the precedes the logical and often “interest” is the logical justification for fear and honor.
Extended Wars
Cobra Kai begins nearly thirty years after the original Karate Kid. The series brings back all the main characters to include Daniel LaRusso, Johnny Lawrence, Sensei Jon Kreese, and a host of other characters from the Karate Kid trilogy. What is apparent from the beginning is that the conflict between Daniel, Johnny, and Kreese is still ongoing, despite a three-decade respite.
Just as Daniel and Johnny, or Miyagi Dojo and Cobra Kai engaged in a continual conflict, so did the city states of Athens and Sparta. The Peloponnesian Wars lasted close to thirty years. This war had periods of major battles and periods of relative peace which included a formal Peace of Nicias that held for six years.
Both Thucydides and Cobra Kai lead us to question the concept of wars having an end. A pure dichotomy of peace and war tends to be a Western construct, while the Eastern view looks at war as just another form of statecraft. Today, the strategic guidance of the Department of Defense stresses the return of “Great Power Competition” where adversaries such as Russia and China operate below the threshold of conflict. This is to say that our adversaries often use tactical actions to achieve strategic effects. China’s salami slicing of one island at a time in the South China Sea is an example of this doctrine.
Often war is born of political differences, runs its course, and then returns to political discourse. In this series we see it happen again and again as there is argument, physical conflict, stasis, and then argument again. The point is the conflict never truly ends it is transformed; sometimes into something for the worst, sometimes into something for the better.
Might Makes Right
The Melian Dialogue occurred when Athens approached the city state of Melos and gave them an ultimatum to join the Delian League. The Athenians reminded the leaders of Melos that morals have no place in statecraft by stating, “the strong do as they will, the weak do as they must.” This was a hard truth, and when Melos refused the Athenian offer, the city was destroyed, and its citizens killed or made slaves of Athens.
Honor is a luxury of the strong and hope is the enemy of rationalism. At the end of episode 2 of season 3, Sensei Kreese teaches his students a hard lesson in life. Standing in front of the class he tells them “there is no right or wrong, there is only strong and weak.” Although this advice may not be appropriate to a group of teenagers, it represents a realist perspective on statecraft.
Realism tends to look at hard power as the key to international relations and advancing national interests. Further, realism takes the perspective that success of one party will come at the expense of another. Certainly, both Daniel LaRusso and his Cobra Kai opponents saw the power struggle in the Valley as a zero-sum game. Every student that joined the Miyagi Dojo came at the expense of the Cobra Kai Dojo. Even in the intrapersonal relationships between the students, they could only choose to be friends with Miyagi kids or Cobra Kai kids, there is no middle ground.
Different Strategy
War can sometimes be an opposition of absolutes while statecraft is the art of compromise. Throughout the Cobra Kai series, the competing dojos develop opposing strategies towards each other. Cobra Kai under the moniker “Strike Hard, Strike Fast, No Mercy” adapt the offensive strategy Sparta employed in the Peloponnesian War. The Spartan strategy developed by Archimadius was one of compellance, or coercion through punishment with the objective of reducing Athenian power.
On the other hand, the students in the Miyagi Dojo employed a strategy that more closely resembled that of Pericles. This was a strategy of denial, and one of rejecting decisive battle. This strategy assumed the Spartans would act rationally, and eventually see the costs of war as too expensive. Just as Pericles had his citizens abandon the fields and retreat behind the city walls, Daniel LaRusso had his students strictly learn Karate as a form of defense, and to only engage Cobra Kai on the mats at the All-Valley Under-18 Karate Tournament.
However, just as Pericles failed to account for the passions of the Athenian people, and their desire to inflict pain on the invading Spartans, Daniel LaRusso failed to account for the passions of his students and their desire for revenge every time a member of Cobra Kai attacked them. This failed calculation is one of the core reasons for the breakout of the fight at the end of season 2.
Expanding War Aims
A lesson anyone can glean through the study of the past 5,000 years of war is that once a conflict begins, the aims of each party tend to change during the conflict. Often, this can lead to disaster should one party to a conflict chase ends that are beyond their ways and means. The further one side diverges from their original objectives there is an increase in the chance for strategic failure.
A clear example of expanding war aims in Thucydides is the Sicilian Expedition. This foray was a foolish choice by the Athenians and led to a disastrous military defeat. Indeed, the unnecessary invasion of Sicily overextended the Athenian empire to a point where they could not sustain or reinforce their military when the Sicilians began a series of revolts.
When thinking about conflict termination it is better to pursue peace when in a position of relative advantage or strength over an adversary. In season 3, we see Sensei Kreese expand his war aims in his approach to Robby, Johnny Lawrence’s son. Had Kreese chosen to consolidate his gains and focus squarely on the dojo, he could have enjoyed his success. Rather, Kreese continued to push his luck, a consequence of not thinking through his strategic objectives from the beginning. John Kreese may have learned how to fight in Special Forces, but he did not learn strategy development.
The Value of Coalitions
In seeking to gain a military advantage, both Sparta and Athens tried to expand their influence with other city states in the Mediterranean. Athens did so by establishing an empire system and Sparta did so through a system of alliances. For Sparta, their alliance system provided a maritime capability that they did not have at the outset of the war. It was this maritime capability combined with their own strength of land forces that would prove decisive in their victory over Athens.
Once Sensei Kreese took over the Cobra Kai Dojo, his momentum and rising power seemed unstoppable. Cobra Kai was running over the Miyagi and newly formed Eagle Fang dojos. What halted the aggressive actions of Cobra Kai and Sensei Kreese was the combing of forces against him. The result of this will play out in the much anticipated season four.
It is often said that the only thing worse than fighting with coalition allies and partners is fighting without them. For the United States, maintaining a global system of alliances is critical to power projection as well as maintaining legitimacy in military operations. Indeed, fighting with allies and partners was an essential element in gaining our nation’s independence. And since World War I, the United States has not fought a war on a unilateral basis.
Clausewitz
The great Prussian Carl von Clausewitz is the most often quoted but least read and understood military theorist. The good news is that Cobra Kai vs Miyagi Dojo War serves as a teaching point for many of Clausewitz’s theories. It is important to keep in mind that Clausewitz does not teach us how to fight a war, nor does he provide us with a checklist to follow to secure victory. Rather, reading Clausewitz is useful to think about war.
War is an extension of politics / policy and the Law of Reciprocal Action
There is a nuance between politics and policy that I will skip for the purposes of this post. But, wars don’t just happen. Nations, and in the modern era non-state actors don’t go to war for the purposes of fighting. Rather, they go to war with a goal or objective in mind. Moreover, the use of the military instrument of national power is just one item in the statecraft toolbox. The economic, diplomatic, and information instruments of national power come into play before, during, and after the military conflict.
One of the many flaws in the strategies of LaRusso, Lawrence, and Kreese is the lack of an objective. Each individual and dojo seems intent on a continual conflict until the other side gives up. Neither side anticipates a reaction from the other. Indeed, it is almost as if in every action none of the participants in the Cobra Kai – Miyagi War think that their adversary will react to their moves, and at time simultaneously. This is even more surprising as continual action / reaction is exactly how a karate match plays out. Never ending conflict without a clear endstate is often the result of going to war over honor disguised as interest.
Clausewitz compared war to a wrestling contest where two opponents grappled and maneuvered to get the other to submit. Had he grown up in the Valley, and not a 19th Century Prussia, Clausewitz would have probably made a karate analogy in lieu of wrestling. The analogy works as in war, one does not plan or fight against an inanimate object. Rather, one plans and fights against a living and thinking adversary. Clausewitz termed this reciprocal action. Both military leaders and football players must constantly adapt to conditions on the battlefield and football field respectively. The team, or the military that learns the fastest holds a decisive advantage over their adversary.
War is Uncertain. War is Violent
Clausewitz teaches us that war is filled with fog, friction, and chance. Fog is the uncertainty in war, friction is the countless minor incidents that make the simple very difficult, and chance is the unpredictable circumstances that consistently occur in war. Understanding these three concepts is crucial to understanding that war by its very nature is violent. And despite the best of intentions to contain the violence in war to a minimum or acceptable level, it almost never happens.
War tends to go into places neither side expects. Vertical and horizontal escalation builds as parties to a conflict refuse to back down. Various third parties enter and leave the conflict based on respective interests, and the element of chance hangs over every move. When Daniel and Johnny reignited their conflict, neither expected teenagers to wind up in the hospital nearly paralyzed, neither expected their business and finances to be at risk, and neither expected that their kids would be thrown out of school or end up in juvenile detention. War and conflict will always have unintended consequences, some of which may be out of our control. When two or more sides engage in armed conflict (or large-scale high-school group fights) the must expect that they themselves will be changed. In some ways, not for the best.
As entertaining as Cobra Kai is, viewing the series from the perspective of history’s great strategic theorists adds layers to the enjoyment and analysis.